Conflicts and opportunities for commercial tree plantation expansion and biodiversity restoration across Brazil.

Substantial global restoration commitments are occurring alongside a rapid expansion in land-hungry tropical commodities, including to supply increasing demand for wood products. Future commercial tree plantations may deliver high timber yields, shrinking the footprint of production forestry, but there is an as-yet unquantified risk that plantations may expand into priority restoration areas, with marked environmental costs. Focusing on Brazil-a country of exceptional restoration importance and one of the largest tropical timber producers-we use random forest models and information on the economic, social, and spatial drivers of historic commercial tree plantation expansion to estimate and map the probability of future monoculture tree plantation expansion between 2020 and 2030. We then evaluate potential plantation-restoration conflicts and opportunities at national and biome-scales and under different future production and restoration pathways. Our simulations show that of 2.8 Mha of future plantation expansion (equivalent to plantation expansion 2010-2020), ~78,000 ha (3%) is forecast to occur in the top 1% of restoration priority areas for terrestrial vertebrates, with ~547,500 ha (20%) and ~1,300,000 ha (46%) in the top 10% and 30% of priority areas, respectively. Just ~459,000 ha (16%) of expansion is forecast within low-restoration areas (bottom 30% restoration priorities), and the first 1 Mha of plantation expansion is likely to have disproportionate impacts, with potential restoration-plantation overlap starkest in the Atlantic Forest but prominent in the Pampas and Cerrado as well. Our findings suggest that robust, coherent land-use policies must be deployed to ensure that significant trade-offs between restoration and production objectives are navigated, and that commodity expansion does not undermine the most tractable conservation gains under emerging global restoration agendas. They also highlight the potentially significant role an engaged forestry sector could play in improving biodiversity outcomes in restoration projects in Brazil, and presumably elsewhere.

Feasibility of group telerehabilitation for individuals with chronic acquired brain injury: integrating clinical care and research.

BACKGROUND: Acquired brain injury (ABI) is a leading cause of lifelong disability, but access to treatment in the chronic stages has significant barriers. Group-based, remotely delivered neurorehabilitation reduces costs, travel barriers, and infection risk; however, its feasibility for patients with ABI is not well-established. OBJECTIVES: To investigate the feasibility of remotely group-based cognitive and mood therapies for persons with chronic ABI. METHODS: Three hundred and eighty-eight adults with chronic ABI participated in group tele-neurorehabilitation modules comprising Cognitive Behavioral Therapy, Goal Management Training®, Relaxation and Mindfulness Skills Training, and/or a novel Concussion Education & Symptom Management program. Assessments comprised quantitative metrics, surveys, as well as qualitative semi-structured interviews in a subset of participants. RESULTS: High retention, adherence, and satisfaction were observed. Facilitators of treatment included accessibility, cost-effectiveness, and convenience. Adoption of technology was high, but other people's technological interruptions were a barrier. Self-reported benefits specific to group-based format included improved mood, stress management, coping, interpersonal relationships, cognitive functioning, and present-mindedness. CONCLUSIONS: The present study examined chronic ABI patients' perceptions of telerehabilitation. Patients found remotely delivered, group-based mood, and cognitive interventions feasible with easy technology adoption. Group format was considered a benefit. Recommendations are provided to inform design of remotely delivered ABI programs.

Group-based mood and cognitive telerehabilitation is feasible for persons with chronic acquired brain injury, with high reported satisfaction.Screening for technical proficiency and providing ongoing technical support improves therapy adherence and retention.Integration of clinical care and research is feasible for delivering remote therapies to persons with brain injury.

Global mangrove soil organic carbon stocks dataset at 30 m resolution for the year 2020 based on spatiotemporal predictive machine learning.

This dataset presents global soil organic carbon stocks in mangrove forests at 30 m resolution, predicted for 2020. We used spatiotemporal ensemble machine learning to produce predictions of soil organic carbon content and bulk density (BD) to 1 m soil depth, which were then aggregated to calculate soil organic carbon stocks. This was done by using training data points of both SOC (%) and BD in mangroves from a global dataset and from recently published studies, and globally consistent predictive covariate layers. A total of 10,331 soil samples were validated to have SOC (%) measurements and were used for predictive soil mapping. We used time-series remote sensing data specific to time periods when the training data were sampled, as well as long-term (static) layers to train an ensemble of machine learning model. Ensemble models were used to improve performance, robustness and unbiasedness as opposed to just using one learner. In addition, we performed spatial cross-validation by using spatial blocking of training data points to assess model performance. We predicted SOC stocks for the 2020 time period and applied them to a 2020 mangrove extent map, presenting both mean predictions and prediction intervals to represent the uncertainty around our predictions. Predictions are available for download under CC-BY license from 10.5281/zenodo.7729491 and also as Cloud-Optimized GeoTIFFs (global mosaics).

Co-occurrence of biodiversity, carbon storage, coastal protection, and fish and invertebrate production to inform global mangrove conservation planning.

Mangrove forests support unique biodiversity and provide a suite of ecosystem services (ES) that benefit people. Decades of continual mangrove loss and degradation have necessitated global efforts to protect and restore this important ecosystem. Generating and evaluating asset maps of biodiversity and ES is an important precursor to identifying locations that can deliver conservation outcomes across varying scales, such as maximising the co-occurrence of specific ES. We bring together global datasets on mangrove-affiliated biodiversity, carbon stocks, fish and invertebrate production, and coastal protection to provide insight into potential trade-offs, synergies and opportunities from mangrove conservation. We map opportunities where high ES provision co-occurs with these areas that could be leveraged in conservation planning, and identify potential high-value opportunities for single ES that might otherwise be missed with a biodiversity focus. Hotspots of single ES, co-occurrence of multiple ES, and opportunities to simultaneously leverage biodiversity and ES occurred throughout the world. For example, efforts that focus on conserving or restoring mangroves to store carbon can be targed to deliver multiple ES benefits. Some nations, such as Vietnam, Oman, Ecuador and China, showed consistent (although not necessarily strong) correlations between ES pairs. A lack of clear or consistent spatial trends elsewhere suggests that some nations will likely benefit more from complementarity-based approaches that focus on multiple sites with high provision of different services. Individual sites within these nations, however, such as Laguna de Terminos in Mexico still provide valuable opportunities to leverage co-benefits. Ensuring that an ES focused approach is complemented by strategic spatial planning is a priority, and our analyses provide a precursor towards decisions about where and how to invest.

Linear endovenous energy density (LEED) should always be quoted with the power used in endovenous thermal ablation - results from an in-vitro porcine liver model study.

BACKGROUND: Linear Endovenous Energy Density (LEED) is the energy used per cm of vein in endovenous thermal ablation (EVTA) but does not include time. This study examines the effect of time during EVTA. METHOD: EVTA was performed in a previously validated porcine liver model. LEEDs of 40, 60, 80 and 100 J/cm, using different powers were repeated 5 times each. Thermal spread, tissue carbonisation and device-tissue sticking during treatment were recorded. RESULT: LEED positively correlated to thermal spread and carbonisation of the tissue. Power was correlated with carbonisation but not thermal spread. Pullback had no correlations with thermal spread or carbonisation. Catheter sticking found occurred in powers >= 15 W or LEED >= 80 J/cm. CONCLUSION: LEED is a good measure of EVTA but does not include time. Power, which does include time, correlates with carbonisation and with device-tissue sticking. The power used must be quoted with the LEED.

Drivers of global mangrove loss and gain in social-ecological systems.

Mangrove forests store high amounts of carbon, protect communities from storms, and support fisheries. Mangroves exist in complex social-ecological systems, hence identifying socioeconomic conditions associated with decreasing losses and increasing gains remains challenging albeit important. The impact of national governance and conservation policies on mangrove conservation at the landscape-scale has not been assessed to date, nor have the interactions with local economic pressures and biophysical drivers. Here, we assess the relationship between socioeconomic and biophysical variables and mangrove change across coastal geomorphic units worldwide from 1996 to 2016. Globally, we find that drivers of loss can also be drivers of gain, and that drivers have changed over 20 years. The association with economic growth appears to have reversed, shifting from negatively impacting mangroves in the first decade to enabling mangrove expansion in the second decade. Importantly, we find that community forestry is promoting mangrove expansion, whereas conversion to agriculture and aquaculture, often occurring in protected areas, results in high loss. Sustainable development, community forestry, and co-management of protected areas are promising strategies to reverse mangrove losses, increasing the capacity of mangroves to support human-livelihoods and combat climate change.

A global horizon scan of issues impacting marine and coastal biodiversity conservation.

The biodiversity of marine and coastal habitats is experiencing unprecedented change. While there are well-known drivers of these changes, such as overexploitation, climate change and pollution, there are also relatively unknown emerging issues that are poorly understood or recognized that have potentially positive or negative impacts on marine and coastal ecosystems. In this inaugural Marine and Coastal Horizon Scan, we brought together 30 scientists, policymakers and practitioners with transdisciplinary expertise in marine and coastal systems to identify new issues that are likely to have a significant impact on the functioning and conservation of marine and coastal biodiversity over the next 5-10 years. Based on a modified Delphi voting process, the final 15 issues presented were distilled from a list of 75 submitted by participants at the start of the process. These issues are grouped into three categories: ecosystem impacts, for example the impact of wildfires and the effect of poleward migration on equatorial biodiversity; resource exploitation, including an increase in the trade of fish swim bladders and increased exploitation of marine collagens; and new technologies, such as soft robotics and new biodegradable products. Our early identification of these issues and their potential impacts on marine and coastal biodiversity will support scientists, conservationists, resource managers and policymakers to address the challenges facing marine ecosystems.

Circulating C-Peptide Levels in Living Children and Young People and Pancreatic ß-Cell Loss in Pancreas Donors Across Type 1 Diabetes Disease Duration.

C-peptide declines in type 1 diabetes, although many long-duration patients retain low, but detectable levels. Histological analyses confirm that ß-cells can remain following type 1 diabetes onset. We explored the trends observed in C-peptide decline in the UK Genetic Resource Investigating Diabetes (UK GRID) cohort (N = 4,079), with ß-cell loss in pancreas donors from the network for Pancreatic Organ donors with Diabetes (nPOD) biobank and the Exeter Archival Diabetes Biobank (EADB) (combined N = 235), stratified by recently reported age at diagnosis endotypes (<7, 7-12, ≥13 years) across increasing diabetes durations. The proportion of individuals with detectable C-peptide declined beyond the first year after diagnosis, but this was most marked in the youngest age group (<1-year duration: age <7 years: 18 of 20 [90%], 7-12 years: 107 of 110 [97%], ≥13 years: 58 of 61 [95%] vs. 1-5 years postdiagnosis: <7 years: 172 of 522 [33%], 7-12 years: 604 of 995 [61%], ≥13 years: 225 of 289 [78%]). A similar profile was observed in ß-cell loss, with those diagnosed at younger ages experiencing more rapid loss of islets containing insulin-positive (insulin+) ß-cells <1 year postdiagnosis: age <7 years: 23 of 26 (88%), 7-12 years: 32 of 33 (97%), ≥13 years: 22 of 25 (88%) vs. 1-5 years postdiagnosis: <7 years: 1 of 12 (8.3%), 7-12 years: 7 of 13 (54%), ≥13 years: 7 of 8 (88%). These data should be considered in the planning and interpretation of intervention trials designed to promote ß-cell retention and function.

High-resolution mapping of losses and gains of Earth's tidal wetlands.

Tidal wetlands are expected to respond dynamically to global environmental change, but the extent to which wetland losses have been offset by gains remains poorly understood. We developed a global analysis of satellite data to simultaneously monitor change in three highly interconnected intertidal ecosystem types-tidal flats, tidal marshes, and mangroves-from 1999 to 2019. Globally, 13,700 square kilometers of tidal wetlands have been lost, but these have been substantially offset by gains of 9700 km2, leading to a net change of -4000 km2 over two decades. We found that 27% of these losses and gains were associated with direct human activities such as conversion to agriculture and restoration of lost wetlands. All other changes were attributed to indirect drivers, including the effects of coastal processes and climate change.

Ambitious global targets for mangrove and seagrass recovery.

There is an urgent need to halt and reverse loss of mangroves and seagrass to protect and increase the ecosystem services they provide to coastal communities, such as enhancing coastal resilience and contributing to climate stability.1,2 Ambitious targets for their recovery can inspire public and private investment in conservation,3 but the expected outcomes of different protection and restoration strategies are unclear. We estimated potential recovery of mangroves and seagrass through gains in ecosystem extent to the year 2070 under a range of protection and restoration strategies implemented until the year 2050. Under a protection-only scenario, the current trajectories of net mangrove loss slowed, and a minor net gain in global seagrass extent (∼1%) was estimated. Protection alone is therefore unlikely to drive sufficient recovery. However, if action is taken to both protect and restore, net gains of up to 5% and 35% of mangroves and seagrasses, respectively, could be achieved by 2050. Further, protection and restoration can be complementary, as protection prevents losses that would otherwise occur post-2050, highlighting the importance of implementing protection measures. Our findings provide the scientific evidence required for setting strategic and ambitious targets to inspire significant global investment and effort in mangrove and seagrass conservation.

Upscaling tropical restoration to deliver environmental benefits and socially equitable outcomes.

The UN Decade on Ecosystem Restoration offers immense potential to return hundreds of millions of hectares of degraded tropical landscapes to functioning ecosystems. Well-designed restoration can tackle multiple Sustainable Development Goals, driving synergistic benefits for biodiversity, ecosystem services, agricultural and timber production, and local livelihoods at large spatial scales. To deliver on this potential, restoration efforts must recognise and reduce trade-offs among objectives, and minimize competition with food production and conservation of native ecosystems. Restoration initiatives also need to confront core environmental challenges of climate change and inappropriate planting in savanna biomes, be robustly funded over the long term, and address issues of poor governance, inadequate land tenure, and socio-cultural disparities in benefits and costs. Tackling these issues using the landscape approach is vital to realising the potential for restoration to break the cycle of land degradation and poverty, and deliver on its core environmental and social promises.

Remotely delivered environmental enrichment intervention for traumatic brain injury: Study protocol for a randomised controlled trial.

INTRODUCTION: Individuals with moderate-severe traumatic brain injury (m-sTBI) experience progressive brain and behavioural declines in the chronic stages of injury. Longitudinal studies found that a majority of patients with m-sTBI exhibit significant hippocampal atrophy from 5 to 12 months post-injury, associated with decreased cognitive environmental enrichment (EE). Encouragingly, engaging in EE has been shown to lead to neural improvements, suggesting it is a promising avenue for offsetting hippocampal neurodegeneration in m-sTBI. Allocentric spatial navigation (ie, flexible, bird's eye view approach), is a good candidate for EE in m-sTBI because it is associated with hippocampal activation and reduced ageing-related volume loss. Efficacy of EE requires intensive daily training, prohibitive within most current health delivery systems. The present protocol is a novel, remotely delivered and self-administered intervention designed to harness principles from EE and allocentric spatial navigation to offset hippocampal atrophy and potentially improve hippocampal functions such as navigation and memory for patients with m-sTBI. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: Eighty-four participants with chronic m-sTBI are being recruited from an urban rehabilitation hospital and randomised into a 16-week intervention (5 hours/week; total: 80 hours) of either targeted spatial navigation or an active control group. The spatial navigation group engages in structured exploration of different cities using Google Street View that includes daily navigation challenges. The active control group watches and answers subjective questions about educational videos. Following a brief orientation, participants remotely self-administer the intervention on their home computer. In addition to feasibility and compliance measures, clinical and experimental cognitive measures as well as MRI scan data are collected pre-intervention and post-intervention to determine behavioural and neural efficacy. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: Ethics approval has been obtained from ethics boards at the University Health Network and University of Toronto. Findings will be presented at academic conferences and submitted to peer-reviewed journals. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: Version 3, ClinicalTrials.gov Registry (NCT04331392).

The scale of Nigeria's involvement in the trans-national illegal pangolin trade: Temporal and spatial patterns and the effectiveness of wildlife trade regulations.

The Convention on International Trade in Endangered Species of Wild Fauna and Flora (CITES) prohibits commercial trans-national trade in pangolin specimens. However, African pangolins are continually trafficked to Asia for traditional medicine, with Nigeria considered a key hub. Using reported Nigeria-linked pangolin seizure data and interviews with Nigerian law enforcement officials, we a) characterised Nigeria's involvement in global pangolin trafficking January 2010-September 2021, particularly observing trafficking trends after pangolin's CITES Appendix I listing; b) estimated the minimum number of pangolins whose scales are in Nigeria-linked seizures January 2010-September 2021, and; c) assessed ongoing efforts within Nigeria to curb pangolin trafficking. Nigeria-linked seizures involved 190,407 kg of pangolin derivatives (99.9% scales) from a minimum of 799,343 pangolins (95% confidence interval; 625,944-996,353) of four species (see caveats in Methods). All shipments confiscated in transit were destined for Asia, with a rapid increase in the mass of maritime shipments over time. Furthermore, stockpiling of pangolin derivatives for overseas shipment is perhaps a prominent trafficking model in Nigeria. Nigeria's law enforcement efforts improved from 2017, the same year Nigeria apparently began playing a hub role. The impact of pangolin's CITES Appendix I listing on pangolin trafficking was unclear, as the marked rise in seizures from 2017 when the listing became effective, coincided with improvements in Nigerian law enforcement efforts. COVID-19-induced travel restrictions likely reduced trafficking activities in 2020 but activities may have fully resumed in 2021. This study provides new information to inform effective enforcement and policy formulation efforts to protect African pangolins.

A global biophysical typology of mangroves and its relevance for ecosystem structure and deforestation.

Mangrove forests provide many ecosystem services but are among the world's most threatened ecosystems. Mangroves vary substantially according to their geomorphic and sedimentary setting; while several conceptual frameworks describe these settings, their spatial distribution has not been quantified. Here, we present a new global mangrove biophysical typology and show that, based on their 2016 extent, 40.5% (54,972 km2) of mangrove systems were deltaic, 27.5% (37,411 km2) were estuarine and 21.0% (28,493 km2) were open coast, with lagoonal mangroves the least abundant (11.0%, 14,993 km2). Mangroves were also classified based on their sedimentary setting, with carbonate mangroves being less abundant than terrigenous, representing just 9.6% of global coverage. Our typology provides a basis for future research to incorporate geomorphic and sedimentary setting in analyses. We present two examples of such applications. Firstly, based on change in extent between 1996 and 2016, we show while all types exhibited considerable declines in area, losses of lagoonal mangroves (- 6.9%) were nearly twice that of other types. Secondly, we quantify differences in aboveground biomass between mangroves of different types, with it being significantly lower in lagoonal mangroves. Overall, our biophysical typology provides a baseline for assessing restoration potential and for quantifying mangrove ecosystem service provision.

Mangrove blue carbon stocks and dynamics are controlled by hydrogeomorphic settings and land-use change.

Globally, carbon-rich mangrove forests are deforested and degraded due to land-use and land-cover change (LULCC). The impact of mangrove deforestation on carbon emissions has been reported on a global scale; however, uncertainty remains at subnational scales due to geographical variability and field data limitations. We present an assessment of blue carbon storage at five mangrove sites across West Papua Province, Indonesia, a region that supports 10% of the world's mangrove area. The sites are representative of contrasting hydrogeomorphic settings and also capture change over a 25-years LULCC chronosequence. Field-based assessments were conducted across 255 plots covering undisturbed and LULCC-affected mangroves (0-, 5-, 10-, 15- and 25-year-old post-harvest or regenerating forests as well as 15-year-old aquaculture ponds). Undisturbed mangroves stored total ecosystem carbon stocks of 182-2,730 (mean ± SD: 1,087 ± 584) Mg C/ha, with the large variation driven by hydrogeomorphic settings. The highest carbon stocks were found in estuarine interior (EI) mangroves, followed by open coast interior, open coast fringe and EI forests. Forest harvesting did not significantly affect soil carbon stocks, despite an elevated dead wood density relative to undisturbed forests, but it did remove nearly all live biomass. Aquaculture conversion removed 60% of soil carbon stock and 85% of live biomass carbon stock, relative to reference sites. By contrast, mangroves left to regenerate for more than 25 years reached the same level of biomass carbon compared to undisturbed forests, with annual biomass accumulation rates of 3.6 ± 1.1 Mg C ha-1  year-1 . This study shows that hydrogeomorphic setting controls natural dynamics of mangrove blue carbon stocks, while long-term land-use changes affect carbon loss and gain to a substantial degree. Therefore, current land-based climate policies must incorporate landscape and land-use characteristics, and their related carbon management consequences, for more effective emissions reduction targets and restoration outcomes.

National mitigation potential from natural climate solutions in the tropics.

Better land stewardship is needed to achieve the Paris Agreement's temperature goal, particularly in the tropics, where greenhouse gas emissions from the destruction of ecosystems are largest, and where the potential for additional land carbon storage is greatest. As countries enhance their nationally determined contributions (NDCs) to the Paris Agreement, confusion persists about the potential contribution of better land stewardship to meeting the Agreement's goal to hold global warming below 2°C. We assess cost-effective tropical country-level potential of natural climate solutions (NCS)-protection, improved management and restoration of ecosystems-to deliver climate mitigation linked with sustainable development goals (SDGs). We identify groups of countries with distinctive NCS portfolios, and we explore factors (governance, financial capacity) influencing the feasibility of unlocking national NCS potential. Cost-effective tropical NCS offers globally significant climate mitigation in the coming decades (6.56 Pg CO2e yr-1 at less than 100 US$ per Mg CO2e). In half of the tropical countries, cost-effective NCS could mitigate over half of national emissions. In more than a quarter of tropical countries, cost-effective NCS potential is greater than national emissions. We identify countries where, with international financing and political will, NCS can cost-effectively deliver the majority of enhanced NDCs while transforming national economies and contributing to SDGs. This article is part of the theme issue 'Climate change and ecosystems: threats, opportunities and solutions'.

Worldwide insect declines: An important message, but interpret with caution.

A recent paper claiming evidence of global insect declines achieved huge media attention, including claims of "insectaggedon" and a "collapse of nature." Here, we argue that while many insects are declining in many places around the world, the study has important limitations that should be highlighted. We emphasise the robust evidence of large and rapid insect declines present in the literature, while also highlighting the limitations of the original study.

Effects of Water Loss on New Mexico Spadefoot Toad (Spea multiplicata) Development, Spleen Cellularity, and Corticosterone Levels.

Amphibian metamorphosis is complex and larval morphology and physiology are completely restructured during this time. Amphibians that live in unpredictable environments are often exposed to stressors that can directly and indirectly alter physiological systems during development, with subsequent consequences (carryover effects) later in life. In this study, we investigated the effects of water level reduction on development rate, spleen size and cellularity, and examined the role of corticosterone levels in premetamorphic, metamorphic, and postmetamorphic New Mexico spadefoot toads (Spea multiplicata). Based on previous studies, we hypothesized that declining water level would increase tadpole developmental rate, but with the trade-off of increasing corticosterone to a level that would subsequently affect spleen size and cellularity, thus prolonging potential immunological suppression. Declining water levels increased developmental rate by 3 days; however, there were no significant body size effects. Corticosterone (CORT) was negatively correlated with total length, snout vent length, body weight, and spleen weight at metamorphosis, suggesting that size at metamorphosis and the immune system may be affected by excessive CORT levels. When compared to other studies, our results support the view that multiple factors may be acting as stressors in the field affecting amphibian responses, and simple pathways as tested in this study may not adequately represent field conditions.

Advancing Environmental Flow Science: Developing Frameworks for Altered Landscapes and Integrating Efforts Across Disciplines.

Environmental flows represent a legal mechanism to balance existing and future water uses and sustain non-use values. Here, we identify current challenges, provide examples where they are important, and suggest research advances that would benefit environmental flow science. Specifically, environmental flow science would benefit by (1) developing approaches to address streamflow needs in highly modified landscapes where historic flows do not provide reasonable comparisons, (2) integrating water quality needs where interactions are apparent with quantity but not necessarily the proximate factor of the ecological degradation, especially as frequency and magnitudes of inflows to bays and estuaries, (3) providing a better understanding of the ecological needs of native species to offset the often unintended consequences of benefiting non-native species or their impact on flows, (4) improving our understanding of the non-use economic value to balance consumptive economic values, and (5) increasing our understanding of the stakeholder socioeconomic spatial distribution of attitudes and perceptions across the landscape. Environmental flow science is still an emerging interdisciplinary field and by integrating socioeconomic disciplines and developing new frameworks to accommodate our altered landscapes, we should help advance environmental flow science and likely increase successful implementation of flow standards.